This goal, this one right here, could be the reason the Red
Wings miss the playoffs...
#65 Danny DeKeyser and #8 Justin Abdelkader look like they have position but #11 Stephen Gionta tips a shot past Jimmy Howard at 19:23 of the 3rd to beat Detroit, 4-3
It’s March 4th and the Red Wings are at New Jersey and the game is tied 3-3 until this instant when Stephen Gionta tips a shot past Jimmy Howard to put the Devils ahead. The goal comes with 36.6 seconds to play and it's the game-winner. Had Detroit been able to hang on for that final half a minute or so, they would have at least picked up and point and perhaps, in so doing, might have changed the course of franchise history. Time, as you will see, will tell.
As for Gionta, well, the assist he picked up Saturday night turns out to be the only point he's gotten since. But his could turn out to be the biggest goal
of them all this season.
As you know, the fate of the Wings—whether or not they will
make the playoffs for the 23rd year in a row or not—will be decided
this week as Detroit closes out the regular season with four games in six days,
three on the road and two against Division winners.
It’s possible that the Wings will have to win three of their
last four (or at least get two wins and a single point in one of the others) to
get in. Here’s why…
As of now, Monday afternoon, Detroit is hanging on to the first of the two Wild Card slots with 88 points. (Columbus has, for now, the other Wild Card with 87.)
The Wings Magic Number is 5.
Any combination of points gained by Detroit and not gained by New Jersey
totaling five will put the Red Wings in the playoffs.
But here’s the problem: New Jersey, on the outside looking in
with 84 points has, like Detroit (and Columbus for that matter) four games
left. Three of them are against
non-playoff teams before they close the regular season at home against Boston—a
team which has apparently decided their best course of action is to rest up for
the playoffs. Hence, it is not out of
the realm of possibility that the Devils could run the table and finish with 92
points.
Were Detroit to split their remaining four, they too would
finish with 92 points, but since the NHL decided that shootout wins, decided as
they are in a sort-of “skills competition” should not count as much as wins
decided by actual goals scored under actual game conditions, downgraded shootout
wins so that while they are still worth two standings points they don’t count quite as
much when it comes to breaking ties in the standings, Detroit would, in that
scenario, almost certainly finish behind the Devils in the tie-breaker: ROW
(Regulation+Overtime Wins). As of right
now, Jersey has two more ROW (34-32) than Detroit and if that holds, the Devils
would finish ahead of Detroit.
Now, it is possible (unlikely but possible) that Jersey could
win all four of their remaining games in shootouts. If that happened and if Detroit finishes with
two additional regulation time or OT wins both teams would finish with 92
points and 34 ROW. In that case, the
season series would be the tie-breaker except that in this case it would not
and here’s why: According to the NHL, “If
two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against
each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the
extra game shall not be included.”
Detroit played Jersey three times this season so there were
not an equal number of home games so the first game at New Jersey, Detroit’s
3-1 win there on December 6, would not count and both teams recorded two points
in the remaining games:
March 4-- Det 3 @NJ 4
March 7-- Det 7 v NJ 4
The key is that game on March 4. That was the game the Wings were 36 seconds
away from sending to OT before Gionta stepped in. Had they been able to do get the game to overtime, they would have picked up
a point and would have won the head-to-head tie-breaker against the Devils three points to two.
So, let’s say that however unlikely, NJ wins their last four in shootouts and
Detroit gets two more ROW and that’s it and both teams finish tied in points and
ROW. What then?
It’s Goal Differential.
The team with the better Goal Differential (Goals For/Goals Against) gets
in. And right now, NJ has the edge. They are (-9) and Detroit is (-11). And get this.
If Gionta hadn’t scored that goal, both teams would be tied there as
well at (-10).
Stephen Gionta, for the record, has four goals this
season. He’s 454th of 868 NHL players this
season in goals. He is 156th
of 251 among NHL Centers in goals. And
the last goal he scored this season? Naturally,
it came on March 4 against Detroit. Yes, that goal.
.JPG)
1 comment:
I think my Bruins will make the playoffs. Unfortunately I lack faith in the hockey gods.
Hope you've been well, Richard.
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