Why, yes. Yes, I am. I had to send democommie™©® a note yesterday with a link to a story replete with pictures and a video, mind you, of something they call "Truck Day" in Boston--so named because it is the day that the Red Sox (who as you all know suck and always have and always will and there's nothing more to say about that) load up their gaudy, painted-in-Fenway Park-Green 18-wheeler with all their ugly uniforms and all of the rest of the equipment they need to play a game of catch and/or pepper--and send it off to where ever in the hell it is that they spring train.
We mention this because, Huzzah!, it is just about time for the pitchers and catchers to report and to that I say, "Oh, Hell yes!" It snowed again here today and we've arrived at the time of year where I'm tired of being cold and tired of shoveling snow and am ready for a little hardball. So, bring it on...
As I am too cheap to actually subscribe to "Baseball Prospectus" I cannot confirm that the following information was generated by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com fame (he's the most savvy of all the political pollsters as you know) but word is that it was. It's something called the "Pecota Rankings" named after former KC Royals utility infielder Bill Pecota due to the fact that the acronym by which it is known (PECOTA) matches his name: Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. The algorithm--which involves math, apparently--takes into account things like who's out of rehab and who's still on the juice and the like and attempts to project future player performance based on what they've done in the past, etc.
We'll print the prognostications for you today and then we'll check back and check how things turned out in October or thereabouts:
AL East
Boston 94-68
New York 92-70
T.B. Rays 91-71
Balt. 79-83
Toronto 71-91
AL Central
DETROIT 80-82
White Sox 80-82
Minnesota 80-82
Cleveland 77-85
K.C. 74-88
AL West
Texas 87-75
Seattle 83-79
Oakland 82-80
L.A. 76-86
NL East
Phillies 89-73
Atlanta 86-76
Florida 82-80
NY Mets 77-85
Wash. 75-87
NL Central
St. Louis 88-74
Cubs 79-83
Milwaukee 78-84
Cincy 77-85
Houston 77-85
Pittsburgh 72-90
NL West
Colorado 88-74
Arizona 84-78
Dodgers 81-81
Giants 81-81
San Diego 72-90
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That which jumps out at me is the predicted 3-way tie for first in the AL Central. I guarantee one thing: if it happens it will be because Detroit dropped their last 8 games of the season or some such thing to make it happen. I guess I can spend the summer trying to find out how a three-way tie would be resolved. Right now I can't think of a way to do it without a double-elimination tournament of some sort. I know this much, it's never happened before and is about as likely to happen as a coin landing on "heads" 50 times in a row, but hey, it could happen, I suppose.
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3 comments:
77--85.
WTF.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, indeed. Here's my take: If the Mets (to whom we suspect you refer) played in the AL Central, that 77-85 would leave them only 3 games out of first. In the midst, in other words, of a thrilling pennant chase. So, it is apparent to me that what you need here is not necessarily a better team, but rather, a shittier division for them in which to play. I'd get on the horn to Bud Selig right away with this if I were you.
Cubs finishing second in the NL Central, and with a losing record? I shall shun Nate Silver henceforth, like Dwight Shrute shuns Andy Bernard.
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